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Certain models that cannot be compiled will be run at regular speed e. We added a new high-speed engine in our forecast methods and analytical tools. Same analyses results as in previous versions but they now run 10X to 30X faster depending on the analysis and your processor speed! There is now an Excel version switching tool that allows you to determine which version of Excel to start Risk Simulator with.

You can now enter in a single equation or multiple equations to run basic econometrics modeling and automatically create tens to hundreds of iterations of the same model through predefined variables as well as shift the data over time. There will be four sets of icons that fit most screen resolutions x and above. If you perform some data filtering in the forecast chart Data Filter section in the Options tab , the Statistics tab will show the updated statistics based on the truncated data set.

This new forecasting tool is used to run hundreds and even thousands of model combinations and permutations using smart heuristics to determine the best-fitting model for your data, by testing linear, nonlinear, lagged, lead, interacting, nested, and other models. This new tool runs the most common trendlines including linear, nonlinear, exponential, power, moving average, and polynomial models.

It returns a series of charts as well as the goodness-of-fit statistics for each model. This allows you to quickly view the similarities and differences in the assumptions and forecasts in easy to read charts. This tool is capable of segregating and clustering or grouping a large set of data into different natural statistical groups by applying some smart algorithms and heuristics. This new tool can create reports of just the key forecast statistics e. The result is a comparison table listing the selected statistics across multiple forecasts.

Vista users with the user access control turned on or limited users without administrative logins will still be able to enjoy the full functionalities of Risk Simulator by being able to install the software licenses without doing any additional work. To install a new license file you received, simply start Excel, click on Risk Simulator, License, Install License and browse to the license file you are provided to activate the software permanently or for a longer trial period.

Risk Simulator now has the capability of turning on or off certain functionalities to allow you to customize your risk analysis experience. For instance, if you are only interested in the forecasting tools in Risk Simulator, you may be able to obtain a special license that activates only the forecasting tools and leaves the other modules deactivated, thereby saving some costs on the software. The four modules that can be turned on or off are Simulation, Forecasting, Optimization and Analytical Tools.

In addition, specific tools in each module can also be turned on or off. This customization is only available for site licenses of more than 10 computers. Together with the new forecasting tools and techniques in version , Risk Simulator now has the following forecasting methodologies:.

You can now access Risk Simulator functions within Excel by clicking on Insert Function anywhere in your spreadsheet and scrolling to the functions starting with RS. Here, you can set assumptions as well as obtain the forecast statistics of a forecast variable. For instance, you can run the RSAssumptionNormal function to set a normal distribution assumption to a cell, or RSForecastStatistic to obtain the statistics of a forecast cell. In the set assumption forecast, you can set the placeholder or temporary value that is seen before and after a simulation is run Value , the name of the assumption Variable Name , and the parameters of the distribution e.

You can now use the mouse right-click to access quick Risk Simulator items in Excel, such as set assumptions, set forecasts, and run simulation. This new tool is used to compute various scenarios in your model, by changing one or two input variables at a time, for a range of inputs, to determine the effects on the output. Worksheet names are now included in the sensitivity tables for easy identification, and other enhancements are included.

This optimization tool is capable of running multiple sets of optimizations with changing constraints. You can access this tool through the Set Constraints dialog box in optimization. This technique can be run in concurrence with static, dynamic and stochastic optimization. It allows you to re-enable the software if Windows or Excel temporarily disables the software this can occur if there is a power outage when you are running a simulation, if you get a virus or Trojan horse on your computer, if you accidentally delete some critical files, and so forth.

Hands-on Exercises: This version comes with pages of step-by-step hands-on exercises for running each of the techniques and tools in Risk Simulator and pages of probability distribution details describing the characteristics and nature of the 45 distributions available in Risk Simulator , complementing the page detailed user manual translated into 11 languages. Troubleshooter: The Troubleshooter tool is now integrated in the Start menu for Risk Simulator, where you can use this tool to obtain the status of Risk Simulator install e.

Minor Bug Fixes and Enhancements: This new version includes quicker report generation, scatter plot support in the Overlay Charts tool, simplified drop-list for seasonality selection in the Time Series Forecasting tool, more elegant looking Spider Charts, auto installation of licenses if you upgrade from the same major version such as from A to B , where the previous license will now be automatically transferred to the new version; this does not apply if you are upgrading from a different major version such as from version 5.

General Enhancements in Risk Simulator Version 5. Super Speed Simulation: This new capability allows you to run simulations at super speeds 50X to X faster depending on the model and your processor speed! Turbo Speed Analytics: We added a new high-speed engine in our forecast methods and analytical tools.

Multiple Models Econometrics: You can now enter in a single equation or multiple equations to run basic econometrics modeling and automatically create tens to hundreds of iterations of the same model through predefined variables as well as shift the data over time.

Super Speed Simulation in Dynamic and Stochastic Optimization: Simply click on the Advanced button when you run Optimization and select super speed simulation. Enhanced Forecast Charts: The forecast charts now have additional graphical enhancements.

Truncated Statistics: If you perform some data filtering in the forecast chart Data Filter section in the Options tab , the Statistics tab will show the updated statistics based on the truncated data set. Auto Econometrics: This new forecasting tool is used to run hundreds and even thousands of model combinations and permutations using smart heuristics to determine the best-fitting model for your data, by testing linear, nonlinear, lagged, lead, interacting, nested, and other models.

Trendline Analysis: This new tool runs the most common trendlines including linear, nonlinear, exponential, power, moving average, and polynomial models. Segmentation Clustering: This tool is capable of segregating and clustering or grouping a large set of data into different natural statistical groups by applying some smart algorithms and heuristics. Create Forecast Statistics Table: This new tool can create reports of just the key forecast statistics e. Flexible Licensing: There are several new enhancements to our licensing: Vista users with the user access control turned on or limited users without administrative logins will still be able to enjoy the full functionalities of Risk Simulator by being able to install the software licenses without doing any additional work.

Right-Click in Excel: You can now use the mouse right-click to access quick Risk Simulator items in Excel, such as set assumptions, set forecasts, and run simulation. Scenario Analysis: This new tool is used to compute various scenarios in your model, by changing one or two input variables at a time, for a range of inputs, to determine the effects on the output. Efficient Frontier: This optimization tool is capable of running multiple sets of optimizations with changing constraints.

Statistical Analysis Tool: Select the data you wish to analyze, including the headers, and start this tool located at Risk Simulator Tools Statistical Analysis , and the following analyses will be available: Descriptive statistics, including all 4 moments of the distribution as well as other confidence measures.

Distributional fitting, to test if the data set can be fitted to any distributions. Hypothesis test to verify if the data are statistically significantly similar or different than a specific value.

Nonlinear extrapolation to test if the data, a time-series, is nonlinear in nature. Normality test to see if the data set is statistically close to a normal distribution. This is an important statistical character because hypotheses tests as well as other modeling techniques require the normality assumption. Stochastic parameter estimations, to find the input parameters for a random walk, mean-reverting process, or jump-diffusion process, and to decide if the variations explained are sufficient to justify the use of the stochastic process forecast.

Autocorrelation tests to see if the history of the time-series data can be used to predict the future. Trend analysis to test if the data set follows a linear time-trend and what the level of predictability is. Time-series forecasting, to test for the baseline shifts, trends, and seasonality effects of the time-series data. Advanced Data Diagnostic Tool: Select the data you wish to analyze, including the headers, and start this tool located at Risk Simulator Tools Diagnostic Tool , and the following: analyses are available: Heteroskedasticity.

Partial Autocorrelation. Distributive Lag. Normality and Sphericity. Our philosophy is you get to try before you buy.

Once you use it, we are convinced you will fall in love with the simplicity and the power of the tool, and it will become an indispensible part of your modeling toolbox. Contact admin realoptionsvaluation. Advanced analytical tools such as the Risk Simulator software are built to be easy to use but may get the analyst in trouble if used inappropriately. Once you use it, we are convinced you will fall in love with the simplicity and the power of the tool, and it will become an indispensible part of your modeling toolbox.

Contact admin realoptionsvaluation. Advanced analytical tools such as the Risk Simulator software are built to be easy to use but may get the analyst in trouble if used inappropriately. Sufficient theoretical understanding coupled with pragmatic application experience is vital; therefore, training is critical.